Future Earthquake Risk in Nepal

The Earthquake on 25th April that measured 7.8 on the moment magnitude scale, and its subsequent aftershocks rocked Nepal, creating widespread devastation. The tremors have never ceased since April, and no momentary respite has been given my mother nature: the longest gap between two felt seismic events has been at maximum three days.

So, why are there are Earthquakes in Nepal and the Himalayas? Well, the Himalayas were formed as a result of the collision of the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate. The Indian plate met resistance when it hit the Eurasian plate and was forced underneath the Eurasian plate. This passage is not smooth. There are momentary stoppages and when these stoppages become too unbearable, the rocks rebound, causing Earthquakes.

Nepal is the site of many extensive fault systems/ The Main Central Thrust, and the Main Frontal Thrust are just some of the many major and countless minor faults dotting the Nepalese landscape. Even the capital, Kathmandu, has fault-lines criss-crossing underneath. What we think of as being solid, immovable ground is actually mobile.

Now, the Himalayan faulting system can be divided into mainly three parts in the North- the stretch from Jammu and Kashmir to Uttarakhand, the stretch from Uttarakhand through Nepal, and from Nepal to Assam. There have been immense earthquakes in all but the region stretching from Uttarakhand to Pokhara, a wide corridor. There is what we call a “Seismic Gap” in the region.

Fault Systems in Nepal

In fact, the last major earthquake in that segment was hundreds of years ago, and that event was a catastrophic 8.5! There have been rumors circulating in the past few days that we can expect such an earthquake within 15 days, but they remain rumors. It is impossible to predict the exact time and location where an Earthquake is going to strike. It is also equally impossible to predict the magnitude of an event, although there can be a given range. 

Earthquakes are catastrophic events. The only respite from the 7.8 centered at Barpak was that it had a very low frequency, which reduced building damage. However, it is not certain whether future events will also carry this fortuitous property. The population density in the areas where the Earthquake might occur results in the immediate necessity of educating the public about Earthquakes and what to do during one.

Its about time we stopped frowning upon people who say Earthquakes are gonna strike Nepal soon. We need to admit this and prepare ourselves for a apocalyptic scenario. Help has to come from within; staying in debt to outside help is not healthy for the development of our people and our nation.

If you have any questions, feel free to ask!